Jobs Report, Geopolitics, and Boeing Deal: A Week of High Stakes for Investors

Stock markets are off to a shaky start this week, shortened by the upcoming Independence Day holiday. Investors are wrestling with whether the rest of the year will bring a correction or a continuation of the tech-driven rally that's propelled the S&P 500 to a near-15% gain so far.

A key data point to watch is Friday's June jobs report. A cooler labor market could bolster the case for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This comes after encouraging signs of inflation slowing down and some cracks emerging in the economy, sparking hopes for a shift in monetary policy.

Manufacturing activity data released on Monday wasn't great news. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing PMI dipped further into contraction territory, hitting a four-month low in June.

Adding to the uncertainty is the political landscape. Investors are grappling with the prospect of gridlock in France after the first round of national elections. An initial bounce in French stocks following the election fizzled out as relief over a weaker showing by the far-right party waned.

Back in the US, political questions are swirling around President Biden and whether he'll seek re-election after a recent debate performance.

On the corporate side, Boeing announced a $4.7 billion all-stock deal to reacquire its former subsidiary, Spirit AeroSystems. This news comes amidst reports of US prosecutors seeking a guilty plea from the plane maker to settle criminal charges related to the 737 Max crashes. Boeing's stock edged higher, while Spirit Aero shares jumped 4%.

Meanwhile, Meta (formerly Facebook) is facing antitrust charges from the European Union over its "pay or consent" model for digital advertising. The company's stock price dipped slightly on the news.

The jitters in the crypto market seem to be easing, but caution still lingers. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has climbed to 53 today, compared to 47 yesterday. While this shift places it in the "Neutral" zone, it's only a small increase from last week's 51.

A value like 53 suggests investors might have been shaken by recent events but are starting to see some potential for recovery. It's not a full-blown buying spree yet, but it could signal a shift towards a wait-and-see approach, with investors carefully watching market movements before diving back in.

Oil prices could climb to around $90 per barrel due to rising tensions in the Middle East, according to some analysts. Prices are already hovering near these levels, with concerns that conflict could disrupt oil supplies in the Persian Gulf region adding to the upward pressure.