Walmart Earnings in the Spotlight as Market Futures Slide Ahead of Key Reports

As the U.S. stock market opens on Tuesday, it appears to be slipping slightly, with futures pointing to a modest decline across major indices. Investors are in a wait-and-see mode, bracing for a significant day of corporate earnings and economic reports. Among the most anticipated reports is that of retail behemoth Walmart (NYSE: WMT), which is expected to shine once more, despite a challenging retail environment. Goldman Sachs also offers an optimistic forecast for the S&P 500's future growth, while Trump Media & Technology Group looks to diversify its offerings with the acquisition of digital asset platform Bakkt. Here’s a closer look at the key developments moving markets today.

1. Walmart Expected to Outperform Again

Walmart’s earnings are the focal point of today’s market action, and analysts are expecting the retail giant to deliver another strong quarter. Despite softer demand from budget-conscious consumers, Walmart’s strategic focus on low prices for essential products continues to resonate with shoppers. The company has also made significant strides in expanding its e-commerce and advertising businesses, which have bolstered its operating income and allowed it to grow at a faster pace than its top-line revenue.

According to analysts from Oppenheimer, “We expect another solid all-around delivery and guidance raise driven by strong top-line momentum across the enterprise and ramping alternative revenue streams.” The analysts from Citi echoed this sentiment, adding that Walmart is likely to provide positive guidance for the upcoming holiday season, buoyed by a strong back-to-school shopping period.

Market forecasts indicate that Walmart will report a 4% increase in revenue and 5% growth in adjusted operating income for the quarter. This continued strength in performance is reflected in the company’s stock, which has surged by 60% this year—well ahead of the S&P 500’s 23% increase and rival Target’s (NYSE: TGT) 10% rise.

Walmart’s ability to stay ahead of competitors through its vast product offerings and growing digital capabilities will likely make it a cornerstone in the retail landscape for years to come, cementing its role as a bellwether in the sector.

2. Market Futures Slip, Awaiting Key Earnings Reports

U.S. stock futures are trending lower this morning as investors prepare for the release of several key corporate earnings. By 5:29 AM EST, Dow futures were down by 0.56%, the S&P 500 futures slipped by 0.41%, and the Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 0.31%. The downward movement signals caution in the market, as investors await the earnings reports of some major companies that could shift sentiment.

Walmart’s numbers are in the spotlight today, but the broader market is also gearing up for earnings from other corporate giants like Nvidia (NVDA), whose results are expected to set the tone for the remainder of the week. Nvidia, a leader in the artificial intelligence space, has been one of the top performers of 2024, and its earnings report on Wednesday could give the market a fresh sense of direction.

So far, 93% of S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly results, with three-quarters exceeding earnings expectations and more than 60% surpassing revenue forecasts, according to data from FactSet. This overall strength has helped offset some of the recent volatility in broader indices.

3. Goldman Sachs Forecasts 10% S&P 500 Upside for 2025

Despite some short-term volatility, analysts at Goldman Sachs are optimistic about the future of U.S. equities. The firm has raised its 2025 price target for the S&P 500 to 6,500, implying an upside of just over 10% from current levels. According to Goldman’s projections, the broader U.S. stock market will continue to benefit from robust economic growth and strong corporate earnings.

While the so-called "Magnificent 7" stocks—Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA)—are expected to lead the way, Goldman anticipates a relatively narrow margin of outperformance compared to the broader market. The firm projects that these stocks will outperform the S&P 500 by around 7 percentage points, the smallest such margin in seven years.

Goldman estimates that corporate earnings will grow by 11% and that the U.S. economy will expand by 2.5% in 2025. However, the bank also noted that risks remain high for the broader market, citing factors like potential tariffs and rising bond yields as potential headwinds.

4. Trump Media Seeks Diversification with Bakkt Acquisition

In a move that highlights its ambitions to broaden its business beyond social media, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) is in advanced talks to acquire digital asset platform Bakkt (BKKT) in an all-stock deal. The acquisition is seen as a step toward diversifying Trump Media’s portfolio, which has recently seen the launch of its cryptocurrency venture, World Liberty Financial.

The Financial Times reported that TMTG’s acquisition of Bakkt could help the company tap into the growing digital assets space, aligning with Donald Trump’s previously stated goal of making America the “world capital for crypto and Bitcoin.” Bakkt, which was founded by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), is a leading platform for trading and managing digital assets like Bitcoin, and its stock surged by more than 160% on Monday following reports of the deal.

While Trump Media’s stock slipped slightly in premarket trading on Tuesday, investors are watching closely for further developments in this space, particularly given the high volatility in digital asset markets. The move could help Trump Media establish a more diverse revenue base beyond its flagship social media platform, Truth Social.

5. Crude Oil Prices in Focus Amid Supply Concerns

Crude oil prices are also under the microscope today, as traders digest the potential for significant supply disruptions. U.S. crude futures (WTI) were down by 0.65% to $68.71 per barrel, while Brent crude slipped by 0.5% to $72.92. Oil prices surged by over 3% on Monday, largely driven by news that Equinor had halted production at its Johan Sverdrup oilfield in Norway—the largest oilfield in Western Europe.

The supply outage in Norway has raised concerns about global oil supply, particularly in the wake of the ongoing geopolitical tensions involving Russia and Ukraine. While Russian oil exports have largely remained unaffected by the conflict so far, further targeting of oil infrastructure could add more uncertainty to the markets.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast that global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025, thanks in part to rising production from outside OPEC+ nations. The U.S. continues to produce oil at near-record highs, with output surpassing 13 million barrels per day.

Conclusion: A Day of Market Moving Events

Today’s market action is packed with potential catalysts, from Walmart’s earnings to developments in the digital asset space with Trump Media’s acquisition of Bakkt. While the overall market appears to be slipping slightly at the open, a strong earnings report from Walmart could provide a boost, especially as investors look for signs of resilience in the retail sector. Goldman Sachs’ optimistic forecast for 2025 and geopolitical tensions surrounding crude oil also remain important factors to watch.

With so much happening, it’s clear that today’s trading will be anything but dull.